“History doesn't always repeat itself, but it often rhymes!” ❤️

The Story of Elections to Three States & One Union Territory!

Uncanny Similarities in Kerala and Puducherry!

Bolt-from-the-blue Surprises in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal!

10th May 2001

From my personal diary entry, 25 years ago!

#memoriesfromdiaries

On this particular day, exactly 25 years ago, Assembly elections were held for the three states of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, West Bengal, and Pondicherry (UT).

All four elections had their own share of uncanny similarities and shocking surprises in store!

Coming first to Tamil Nadu –

In Tamil Nadu, in the year 2001, even before the elections began, there was a huge crisis on the cards!

Yes, the crisis centred around the leader of the AIADMK, Ms. J. Jayalalithaa. Just weeks ahead of the TN elections in 2001, Ms. Jayalalithaa’s nomination papers across four different constituencies were outrightly rejected by the Returning Officers. The reason??? her conviction in the TANSI land deal case, which carried a prison sentence of more than two years, and which by default legally disqualified her from contesting under the Representation of the People Act.

However, Ms. Jayalalithaa, instead of backing out, played the victim card, calling it a political conspiracy by the then ruling DMK Chief Minister, Mr. M. Karunanidhi.

The victim card surprisingly worked to her favour, and to everyone’s surprise, the AIADMK-led alliance swept the state, winning 196 out of 234 seats. And although she did not contest even a single seat and even after being legally disqualified, Jayalalithaa was unanimously elected as the leader of the legislative party and was sworn in as Chief Minister by Governor Fathima Beevi, triggering a huge constitutional crisis. You may want to read about this entire saga on our past blogpost HERE.

In September 2001, however, the Supreme Court struck down Ms. Jayalalitha’s appointment as unconstitutional, forcing her to temporarily step down and quickly install her devout loyalist, O. Panneerselvam, as Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu.

25 years later, in Tamil Nadu, the 2001 Dravidian bipolar contest has almost come to an end this year because of a massive political earthquake that has surprised even pollsters.

Actor Vijay’s newly formed Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) stunned political veterans by emerging as the single largest party, securing 108 out of 234 seats and pushing the ruling DMK (59 seats) and AIADMK (47 seats) to a distant second and third positions respectively.

I am neither a political pundit nor a political analyst, 😊but I would like to draw your attention to some striking surprises in the vote share in the year 2001 -

In 2001, DMK in TN had a good vote share - 30.90% - but it could manage only 31 seats, while

On the other hand, AIADMK had a very marginal rise – a mere 0.5% rise - in vote share - 31.4% - but it could win a record 132 seats!

How-o-how! 😊

Can you imagine just a mere 0.5% difference in vote share could lead to a difference of 101 seats! Quite surprising, ain’t it?

Well, that’s where alliance arithmetic helps, you see!

Ms. Jayalalithaa was able to cobble up a ‘Mega Alliance’ by a grand coalition of parties, which included the Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC), Indian National Congress (INC), Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), CPI, and CPM.

On the other hand, in 2001, the DMK, was part of the NDA - allied with the BJP and a few smaller parties, but it lacked the strength and the numbers of AIADMK’s coalition.

Hence, when voters went to the polls, the supporters of the TMC, Congress, PMK, and the Left transferred their votes entirely to the AIADMK candidate in the seats where AIADMK was contesting. This guaranteed that AIADMK candidates were winning in most of the constituencies.

Bespeaks to the power of cobbling up a grand coalition!

You may also want to read our past post on how DMK lost power because they didn’t want to take on board just one party – the MDMK, - on our past post HERE.

Compare the situation today in the TN 2026 elections –

DMK in TN has a vote share of 24.19% - winning 59 seats,

AIADMK has a vote share of 21% - winning 47 seats.

TVK has a vote share of 34.92% - winning 108 seats.

Coming now to Kerala -

In 2001, in Kerala, the UDF under the Congress party created a historic landmark of sorts! Led by A.K. Antony, the Congress-led UDF crushed the incumbent LDF, winning 99 seats. It was a landmark election because the Indian National Congress (INC) emerged as the single largest party with 63 seats!

Exactly 25 years later, in 2026, the UDF has yet again stormed back to power, ousting the LDF! Even more remarkably, the Congress once again became the single largest party in the state assembly, securing exactly the same 63 seats that it had won in 2001! A bit of an uncanny coincidence, ain’t it? 😊

Coming now to West Bengal -

In West Bengal, the Left Front swept to power in 2001, in spite of a very formidable opposition – the formidable alliance of Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress and the INC! 

Quite interestingly, much of the media had predicted the downfall of the Left since they felt people were frustrated with the Left after having given them power for 24 long years! However, to everyone’s surprise, the CPI(M)-led Left Front under Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee secured a commanding 199 out of 294 seats, winning a record-breaking sixth consecutive term with a two-thirds majority.

The Left Front got a vote share of 49%. The BJP was barely a factor back then, as it did not win any seat. The party contested in 266 constituencies and garnered 19,01,351 votes, resulting in a 5.19% vote share, but couldn’t secure any seat.

In the year 2026, the BJP achieved its long-standing dream of winning West Bengal for the first time, and got a decisive mandate, ending Mamata’s 15-year rule by winning a commanding 207 out of 294 seats to form its first-ever government in the state, with a record vote share of 45.84%, while the CPM, got a vote share of just around 4.5%

The Left Front, which dominated 2001, was nearly wiped out in 2026, winning just a single seat.

In Kerala and Puducherry, the 2026 elections perfectly mirrored the 2001 elections.

While in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal unexpected political surprises awaited the people, with TVK and BJP respectively, storming to power for the first time ever!

Looking back at the political landscape of over 25 years ago and comparing it with the situation today, we have Kerala and Puducherry, where history has almost photocopied its own electoral verdict to a tee! 😊

On the other hand, in Tamil Nadu and in West Bengal the electorate has given a verdict for a sea-change of sorts!

I would like to sum up these uncanny similarities and shocking surprises through Mark Twain’s lovely line –

History doesn't always repeat itself, but it often rhymes.

In the vibrant landscape of Indian politics, sometimes history repeats, sometimes it rhymes, and sometimes…

… it just throws away the good ol’ script and writes an entirely new song! 😊

We call it the dance of democracy! 😊